From the Morning Desk - Free Your Mind!

The stock market futures (pre-market) look a little weak this morning. And everybody is jumping ship; the talking heads are back spinning tales of coffin-humping and DOW 5000. The told-you-so crowd has never had so many members. There’s a smugness in the air and it smells like bear and clown everywhere you go. There's no confidence at all.

So what does it mean if we fall today? Not a damn thing. Everybody is so jaded (and rightly so), but being jaded only makes you look smart, it prevents you from taking advantage of opportunities.

I’m ignoring the noise. Meredith Whitney is trying to advertise her new firm, Nouriel Roubini (Dr. Doom) is talking up his book and other perma-bears are just trying to save face after Tuesday’s explosion to the upside. They will never turn positive. They will continue to press their bets long after we’ve entered a new bull market. Trust me, if you follow these guys they will lead you off the cliff. The DOW will be at 11,000 and they will still be talking DOW 5000.

“Oh but they have been right all along!”

Yes, absolutely, looking in the rearview mirror they have been correct about the severity and the speed of the meltdown. But didn’t we have bulls saying DOW 20,000 at the top of the market in summer 2007? The perma-bulls had been right for five years, and REALLY wrong in the sixth and seventh year. Wasn't everybody (except Mrs. BTO) calling for $300, $400, $500 oil in summer of 2008? Where the fuck is oil now? Nobody gives two shits about "peak-oil" anymore. Do you understand my point? I think that in a severe bear market, one should listen to the bulls. In a long bull market, start listening to the case that bears are making.

But I’m looking forward and I don’t see DOW 5000 or anything even close. Hey, I know that the economy is going to weaken more, but that doesn’t mean that the stock market can’t get above 8000 before the real economy starts to show signs of stabilization. The stock markets (and credit/bond markets) are leading indicators.

It’s embarrassing being a bull in a market like this. It’s something that most people don’t want to deal with. It’s so much easier to go along with the flow. The news is bad, the market is bad, and everybody agrees that it’s stupid to be in the market. It’s easy to be a bear. It's easy to take that blue pill and just go back to sleep.

It should be said that Doug Kass, a noted bear, has turned positive and is now very bullish on the market. There are signs out there, that you need to pay attention to right now.

Folks, this is Johnny Newsmaker signing off. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming… "Hindsight. Better than the Real Thing?" only on Ranting-TV…